On November 15, the cattle industry received a cold dose of reality when Donald Trump signed an executive order rolling back beef import tariffs on major suppliers, including Brazil, Australia, and New Zealand- in other words, Trump dropped beef tarrifs.
Within hours, phones were ringing across cattle country with one question:
“Should I sell now before prices tank?”
Here at Man Made Cattle, we’re doing what we always do when the market gets noisy — taking a breath, looking at the data, and sticking to our plan.
And our plan says this clearly: we’re holding until March.
What Actually Happened?
Trump dropped beef tariffs in a major policy shift — in some cases as high as 75% — that had been limiting imports of foreign beef.
The move was political. Grocery prices remain a pressure point for voters, and affordability has become a dominant issue in recent election cycles. The administration needed to signal action.
For domestic cattlemen, those tariffs had been helping support prices by limiting outside competition. With that protection reduced, more foreign beef can enter the U.S. market.
Basic economics tells us that increased supply can apply downward pressure on prices.
That concern is fair.
But it’s also incomplete.
The Case for March: Following the Money, Not the Fear
Seasonal patterns don’t lie — and they haven’t changed heading into 2026.
Historically, feeder cattle prices run about 6% above the annual average in March and stay strong through May. They are typically weakest in September, often 5–6% below average.
Fed cattle follow the same pattern, peaking roughly 8% above average in March.
That’s not a small swing.
On a $3.00/lb steer calf, that spread looks like this:
| TIMING | PRICE/LB | VALUE (500LB CALF) |
| Fall Seasonal Low | $2.82 | $1410 |
| Spring Seasonal High | $3.24 | $1620 |
| Difference | +$210 |
That’s real money — not theory.
Supply remains historically tight. The U.S. cattle herd recently touched its lowest level in more than six decades. Fed cattle slaughter has already been trending lower, and beef production continues to face year-over-year constraints.
Before the tariff announcement, industry projections were already pointing toward strong feeder calf values, supported by limited inventory and disciplined placements.
That underlying reality does not disappear because of a policy headline.
Import ramp-up also takes time.
Even with tariffs reduced, foreign suppliers cannot instantly flood the U.S. market. Contracts, shipping capacity, inspections, and distribution all take months to scale.
By March — only a few months away — it is unlikely the full impact of increased imports will be fully reflected in cash cattle prices.
The Risks of Waiting (We’re Not Blind)
Let’s be clear: waiting is not risk-free.
Foreign beef could enter faster than expected. If Brazil or Australia significantly accelerate exports, price pressure could appear sooner than anticipated- a trend we have examined before in how beef imports affect U.S. cattle prices.
Consumer sentiment also matters. If shoppers opt for cheaper imported beef, domestic demand could soften, and prices may follow.
Political uncertainty is another wildcard. Trump has shown a willingness to shift policy quickly. Markets dislike uncertainty — regardless of direction.
There’s also the expansion question. If more ranchers begin retaining heifers for breeding, replacement dynamics could introduce additional pressure later in the cycle.
All of these risks are real.
None of them justify panic.
Pros & Cons Breakdown
Selling Now
Pros
- Lock in historically strong prices
- Eliminate uncertainty and sleep better
- Capture cash before any import surge
Cons
- Miss the historically strong March rally
- Sell into seasonal fall weakness
- Potentially leave significant money on the table
Waiting Until March
Pros
- Capture the seasonal price premium (historically 6–8%)
- Allow tight domestic supply to support prices
- Avoid panic-selling into a seasonal low
Cons
- Risk tariff impacts accelerating
- Exposure to policy or sentiment shifts
- Several months of price volatility
Our Play: Strategic, Not Reactive
We’re not selling heifers and steers because a politician signed a piece of paper.
We’re cattlemen — not day traders.
The fundamentals still support tight supplies into early 2026.
Seasonal pricing still favors March over November.
And a few months is rarely enough time for a complete market reversal.
Here’s our approach:
- Stick to our March timeline
- Monitor weekly auction reports closely
- Set a trigger price and reassess if needed
- Stay flexible — not stubborn
The worst mistake in cattle markets is making emotional decisions based on headlines.
Trump’s decision to drop beef tariffs matters — no question.
But it doesn’t change the fact that there are fewer cattle in America than at almost any point since the mid-20th century.
And it doesn’t change the fact that March historically pays better than November.
We’re staying the course — not out of blind optimism, but disciplined risk management.
What are you doing?
Now that Trump dropped beef tariffs, Are you selling now, or holding your ground?
Let us know in the comments section.
Man Made Cattle provides market insights and practical advice for cattlemen. This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Markets involve risk. Make decisions that fit your operation.